AFL Straight win Predictions
Every game we rate on the straight win market, with the probability and the best price. There is no draw to worry about.
- 20 games rated on this market, starting today and rolling forward.
- Posted by 06:00 WAT and revised when confirmed team news lands.
- One tip per game. It names its own market rather than leaving you to work out which one it is on.
- Settled publicly. Losing calls stay on the page.
AFL Straight win Predictions
20 games rated on this market, starting today and rolling forward, all times West Africa Time
Percentages are our win probability for each side and always total 100, because AFL cannot end level. The tip is our one call on each fixture, and it names its own market. 1 is the home side, 2 the away side, matching the percentages. A tip with no label is a straight win. Handicap 1 (-145.5) is the home side after that line is applied, and Over / under O 158.5 is the match passing that many points. Green means the call won, red means it lost, amber means it has not settled yet. Losing calls stay on the page, which is what the accuracy record is built from. The last column shows the start time until a fixture begins, then the live score, then the final score.
How AFL Straight win Settles
What counts, and what does not
- Back the winner of the game. There is no draw to worry about.
- Overtime. Extra time counts where it is played, which is only in finals that finish level. In the home and away season a draw stands, and on the two way winner it refunds the stake at most bookmakers. Check the rules of the bookmaker you use.
- Postponed or abandoned games are void at most bookmakers unless completed within the stated window.
Settlement rules vary slightly between bookmakers. Where practice differs we say "most bookmakers"; check the rules of the one you use before placing anything.
About Our AFL Straight win Predictions
What the market is, how we rate it, where it tends to land and how to use the page
Australian rules football straight win predictions rate the winner of every game we cover, with a probability for each side and the best price we found. Favourites in the AFL win a high share of games, and the gap between the top and bottom of the ladder is wide enough that the straight win on the best sides is rarely a price worth taking. The line is the main market and it is where the rating earns its keep. The same games sit across all three markets on the Australian rules football predictions hub.
How We Rate the Winner
Each side carries an attack and defence rating built from results, points scored and conceded, home and away splits, rest and weighted recent form, then adjusted for confirmed absences. The two ratings produce a win probability for each side, and the two always total 100 because there is no draw, and the row shows it. A game qualifies for this page when the probability clears our threshold at the price available, which rules out most short priced favourites. The method is on how we make predictions.
Where the Straight Win Is Worth Taking
The straight win on the top AFL sides at home is rarely a price worth taking, and the line is the main market. This page earns its keep on away sides against mid ladder opposition, where the market prices the home crowd, and in the AFLW, where the gap between sides is narrower. The competitions that produce most of the rows here are AFL Premiership, AFLW.
The Other Two Markets
When the favourite is too short to be useful, the line page asks by how much it wins instead, and that is where most of the value on a strong favourite sits. The over / under page ignores the winner altogether and rates the combined points. The all sports table puts every sport's straight win calls in one list.
How to Use This Page
The chips above the table switch market. The country and competition selects narrow the table to one competition without leaving the page. The day pills move to tomorrow or the week ahead, and the date picker goes to any day. Every row links to the full fixture page, where the analysis explains the number. When a pick settles it stays on the site with its result, and the market's strike rate on the accuracy page is calculated from that archive, losses included. The AFL predictions hub carries the same fixtures across every market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What people ask about AFL straight win predictions.