AFL Over / under Predictions
Every game we rate on the over / under market, with the probability and the best price. The total is the combined points of both sides. A line of 164.5 wins the over at 165 or more.
- 6 games rated on this market, starting today and rolling forward.
- Posted by 06:00 WAT and revised when confirmed team news lands.
- One tip per game. It names its own market rather than leaving you to work out which one it is on.
- Settled publicly. Losing calls stay on the page.
AFL Over / under Predictions
6 games rated on this market, starting today and rolling forward, all times West Africa Time
Percentages are our win probability for each side and always total 100, because AFL cannot end level. The tip is our one call on each fixture, and it names its own market. 1 is the home side, 2 the away side, matching the percentages. A tip with no label is a straight win. Handicap 1 (+112.5) is the home side after that line is applied, and Over / under O 160.5 is the match passing that many points. Green means the call won, red means it lost, amber means it has not settled yet. Losing calls stay on the page, which is what the accuracy record is built from. The last column shows the start time until a fixture begins, then the live score, then the final score.
How AFL Over / under Settles
What counts, and what does not
- The line. The total is the combined points of both sides. A line of 164.5 wins the over at 165 or more.
- Overtime. Extra time counts where it is played, which is only in finals that finish level. In the home and away season a draw stands, and on the two way winner it refunds the stake at most bookmakers. Check the rules of the bookmaker you use.
- Both sides count. It does not matter who scores, only the combined figure.
Settlement rules vary slightly between bookmakers. Where practice differs we say "most bookmakers"; check the rules of the one you use before placing anything.
About Our AFL Over / under Predictions
What the market is, how we rate it, where it tends to land and how to use the page
AFL over / under predictions rate the combined points of a game against the bookmaker line, and ignore who wins. AFL totals are high, usually between 150 and 190 points, because a goal is worth six and a behind one. The number depends on the weather, the ground and the pressure each side applies, and it moves a long way on a wet day. We rate the total on every game we cover and list the ones where our expected figure sits far enough from the line, from the card on the Australian rules football predictions hub.
How the Total Settles
The total is the combined points of both sides. A line of 164.5 wins the over at 165 or more.
What Drives a AFL Total
Weather is the first driver, because rain turns a 180 point game into a 130 point one. The ground is the second; some venues are narrower and lower scoring. Pressure and tackling are the rest, since a side that stops ball movement cuts scoring at both ends. The method is on how we make predictions.
Reading This Page
The AFL total moves more on weather than any team news, because rain turns a 180 point game into a 130 point one. The ground matters as well, since some venues are narrower and lower scoring. The rating uses venue adjusted scoring figures and updates on the forecast. The competitions that produce most of the rows here are AFL Premiership, AFLW.
The Other Two Markets
The straight win page rates the winner and the line page rates the margin. A total and a margin are often related, because a one sided game tends to carry a different total from a close one, and reading the two pages together on the same fixture is worth the minute it takes.
How to Use This Page
The chips above the table switch market. The country and competition selects narrow the table to one competition without leaving the page. The day pills move to tomorrow or the week ahead, and the date picker goes to any day. Every row links to the full fixture page, where the analysis explains the number. When a pick settles it stays on the site with its result, and the market's strike rate on the accuracy page is calculated from that archive, losses included. The AFL predictions hub carries the same fixtures across every market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What people ask about AFL over / under predictions.