AFL Handicap Predictions
Every game we rate on the handicap market, with the probability and the best price. The line is in points. A favourite at -20.5 must win by 21 or more; the underdog at +20.5 wins the bet by winning or losing by 20 or fewer. Lines in mismatches can exceed 50 points.
- 14 games rated on this market, starting today and rolling forward.
- Posted by 06:00 WAT and revised when confirmed team news lands.
- One tip per game. It names its own market rather than leaving you to work out which one it is on.
- Settled publicly. Losing calls stay on the page.
AFL Handicap Predictions
14 games rated on this market, starting today and rolling forward, all times West Africa Time
Percentages are our win probability for each side and always total 100, because AFL cannot end level. The tip is our one call on each fixture, and it names its own market. 1 is the home side, 2 the away side, matching the percentages. A tip with no label is a straight win. Handicap 1 (-112.5) is the home side after that line is applied, and Over / under O 164.5 is the match passing that many points. Green means the call won, red means it lost, amber means it has not settled yet. Losing calls stay on the page, which is what the accuracy record is built from. The last column shows the start time until a fixture begins, then the live score, then the final score.
How AFL Handicap Settles
What counts, and what does not
- The line. The line is in points. A favourite at -20.5 must win by 21 or more; the underdog at +20.5 wins the bet by winning or losing by 20 or fewer. Lines in mismatches can exceed 50 points.
- Overtime. Extra time counts where it is played, which is only in finals that finish level. In the home and away season a draw stands, and on the two way winner it refunds the stake at most bookmakers. Check the rules of the bookmaker you use.
- Pushes refund. Where a whole number line lands exactly, the stake is returned.
Settlement rules vary slightly between bookmakers. Where practice differs we say "most bookmakers"; check the rules of the one you use before placing anything.
About Our AFL Handicap Predictions
What the market is, how we rate it, where it tends to land and how to use the page
AFL line predictions rate the margin rather than the winner. Favourites in the AFL win a high share of games, and the gap between the top and bottom of the ladder is wide enough that the straight win on the best sides is rarely a price worth taking. The line is the main market and it is where the rating earns its keep. We rate the line on every game we cover and list the ones where our expected margin differs from the line by enough to matter, from the card on the Australian rules football predictions hub.
How the Line Works
The line is in points. A favourite at -20.5 must win by 21 or more; the underdog at +20.5 wins the bet by winning or losing by 20 or fewer. Lines in mismatches can exceed 50 points.
How We Rate It
Large AFL lines turn on whether the favourite keeps scoring in the last quarter once the game is won, and the margin at three quarter time is often not the final margin. The rating uses margin records against comparable opposition and weights the venue, because some sides are far stronger at home. The method is on how we make predictions.
What Moves the Line
AFL lines are large and the favourite needs to keep scoring in the last quarter once the game is won. The rating uses margin records against comparable opposition and weights the venue, because some sides are far stronger at home and the ground dimensions differ. The competitions that produce most of the rows here are AFL Premiership, AFLW.
The Other Two Markets
The straight win page rates the winner alone, and is the better market when the line is small or the favourite is not clear. The over / under page rates the combined points and is the natural pairing when you have a view on how the game is played rather than who wins it.
How to Use This Page
The chips above the table switch market. The country and competition selects narrow the table to one competition without leaving the page. The day pills move to tomorrow or the week ahead, and the date picker goes to any day. Every row links to the full fixture page, where the analysis explains the number. When a pick settles it stays on the site with its result, and the market's strike rate on the accuracy page is calculated from that archive, losses included. The AFL predictions hub carries the same fixtures across every market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What people ask about AFL handicap predictions.