MMA Predictions for the Week

Every fight on this card rated, with a win probability and the one call we rate. An MMA fight has no draw in practice, so the two percentages add to 100. Free, no account needed. Every rating on this page is a probability produced by the same model that powers our football predictions, calibrated to MMA rather than reused from another sport.

What Makes MMA Different

Style matchup beats record in MMA. A wrestler against a striker is a different question from two strikers meeting, so the model reads takedown accuracy and defence, significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute, reach, age and time since the last fight.

Competitions We Rate

Coverage includes UFC, Bellator, PFL, ONE Championship, Cage Warriors, with the full list in the competitions section above. Each competition carries its own fixtures, ratings and settled results.

Markets We Price

Straight win, Method, Over / under and more, each with its own page. These are MMA markets, not football markets with the words changed: two outcomes because MMA games end level rarely, if ever.

What a Probability Means Here

A selection rated 62 percent is expected to lose roughly four times in ten. We publish the number rather than a confidence label, we do not sell sure predictions, and every settled call stays on the site next to the result. That is what the published accuracy record is built from, and the method is on the methodology page.

UFC Predictions and Picks for Tonight

UFC predictions and UFC bets tonight carry this sport, and the timing is why. A UFC main card starts 03:00 West Africa Time on Sunday morning, with prelims from 01:00, so the fights people call tonight settle here around dawn. Bellator, PFL and Cage Warriors run earlier European cards. Every bout on the table above is rated separately, because a card is not a fixture list, it is ten independent fights.

Method of Victory, Not a Handicap

MMA is the one sport here with no handicap, because a handicap needs a score and a bout does not have one. The middle market is instead method of victory: 1 (KO) is the first fighter to win by knockout, 1 (Sub) by submission, 1 (Dec) on the judges cards. That is a real edge in a sport where a wrestler beating a striker and a striker beating a wrestler look nothing alike.

UFC Odds and Round Totals

The round total is set at 1.5, 2.5 or 4.5 depending on whether the bout is three rounds or five. Under 1.5 is a first round finish, over 4.5 means a five round main event goes the distance. UFC betting tips that ignore the round line miss where most of the value in this sport sits, because finishing rate varies enormously by division.

UFC Odds, Numbered Events and Fight Night Cards

The UFC runs two kinds of card and they are not the same to rate. A numbered event, UFC 300 and the rest, is a pay per view with a five round title fight on top and ranked contenders below it. A Fight Night is a free to air card, often from the Apex in Las Vegas, with a five round main event between fighters further down the division. Both usually run Saturday night in North America, which is Sunday morning here. UFC odds this weekend are therefore tighter on the numbered cards, because the matchmaking is closer, and looser on Fight Nights where a prospect is being fed a veteran. Bellator and PFL sit in between. Our table labels the promotion on every bout, so you know which you are reading.

Expert and Staff Picks Against a Model

UFC expert picks and staff predictions are the format most MMA sites use: five writers pick every fight and the majority becomes the house call. It reads well and it is noisy, because five people watching the same tape usually agree, and agreement is not accuracy. We publish one call per bout from the rating model instead, with the probability next to it, so a 52 percent pick is visibly a coin flip and a 78 percent pick is visibly not. If you are building a multi fight ticket, the probabilities are what you multiply, and three 60 percent picks together is 22 percent, not 60.