NFL Handicap Predictions
Every game we rate on the handicap market, with the probability and the best price. The spread is in points. A favourite at -3.5 must win by four or more; the underdog at +3.5 wins the bet by winning or losing by three or fewer. Three and seven are the key numbers in the NFL because so many games are decided by a field goal or a touchdown, so a half point on either side of them matters.
- 6 games rated on this market, starting today and rolling forward.
- Posted by 06:00 WAT and revised when confirmed team news lands.
- One tip per game. It names its own market rather than leaving you to work out which one it is on.
- Settled publicly. Losing calls stay on the page.
NFL Handicap Predictions
6 games rated on this market, starting today and rolling forward, all times West Africa Time
Percentages are our win probability for each side and always total 100, because NFL cannot end level. The tip is our one call on each fixture, and it names its own market. 1 is the home side, 2 the away side, matching the percentages. A tip with no label is a straight win. Handicap 1 (-23.5) is the home side after that spread is applied, and Over / under O 43.5 is the match passing that many points. Green means the call won, red means it lost, amber means it has not settled yet. Losing calls stay on the page, which is what the accuracy record is built from. The last column shows the start time until a fixture begins, then the live score, then the final score.
How NFL Handicap Settles
What counts, and what does not
- The line. The spread is in points. A favourite at -3.5 must win by four or more; the underdog at +3.5 wins the bet by winning or losing by three or fewer. Three and seven are the key numbers in the NFL because so many games are decided by a field goal or a touchdown, so a half point on either side of them matters.
- Overtime. Overtime counts for every market. A tie is possible in the regular season but rare; on the two way winner a tie refunds the stake at most bookmakers, and on the spread and total it is simply the final score.
- Pushes refund. Where a whole number line lands exactly, the stake is returned.
Settlement rules vary slightly between bookmakers. Where practice differs we say "most bookmakers"; check the rules of the one you use before placing anything.
About Our NFL Handicap Predictions
What the market is, how we rate it, where it tends to land and how to use the page
NFL spread predictions rate the margin rather than the winner. Favourites in the NFL cover the spread about half the time by design, because the line is set to split the money. The straight win on a strong favourite is often very short, which is why the spread is the main market and the moneyline is mainly useful on underdogs we rate above the price. We rate the spread on every game we cover and list the ones where our expected margin differs from the line by enough to matter, from the card on the American football predictions hub.
How the Line Works
The spread is in points. A favourite at -3.5 must win by four or more; the underdog at +3.5 wins the bet by winning or losing by three or fewer. Three and seven are the key numbers in the NFL because so many games are decided by a field goal or a touchdown, so a half point on either side of them matters.
How We Rate It
Key numbers matter more in the NFL than in any other sport because scoring comes in threes and sevens. A line of -2.5 and a line of -3.5 are very different bets. The rating considers the distribution of margins, not only the expected margin, which is how it prices a half point correctly. The method is on how we make predictions.
What Moves the Spread
The spread is the NFL market, and three and seven are the key numbers because so many games are decided by a field goal or a touchdown. A line of -2.5 and a line of -3.5 are different bets, and the rating prices the half point from the distribution of margins rather than from the expected margin alone. The competitions that produce most of the rows here are NFL regular season, NCAA football.
The Other Two Markets
The straight win page rates the winner alone, and is the better market when the spread is small or the favourite is not clear. The over / under page rates the combined points and is the natural pairing when you have a view on how the game is played rather than who wins it.
How to Use This Page
The chips above the table switch market. The country and competition selects narrow the table to one competition without leaving the page. The day pills move to tomorrow or the week ahead, and the date picker goes to any day. Every row links to the full fixture page, where the analysis explains the number. When a pick settles it stays on the site with its result, and the market's strike rate on the accuracy page is calculated from that archive, losses included. The NFL predictions hub carries the same fixtures across every market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What people ask about NFL handicap predictions.