Baseball Handicap Predictions
Every game we rate on the handicap market, with the probability and the best price. The run line is almost always 1.5 runs. The favourite at -1.5 must win by two or more; the underdog at +1.5 wins the bet by winning or losing by one. Because so many games are decided by one run, the favourite on the run line is usually priced above evens.
- 2 games rated on this market, starting today and rolling forward.
- Posted by 06:00 WAT and revised when confirmed team news lands.
- One tip per game. It names its own market rather than leaving you to work out which one it is on.
- Settled publicly. Losing calls stay on the page.
Baseball Handicap Predictions
2 games rated on this market, starting today and rolling forward, all times West Africa Time
Percentages are our win probability for each side and always total 100, because baseball cannot end level. The tip is our one call on each fixture, and it names its own market. 1 is the home side, 2 the away side, matching the percentages. A tip with no label is a straight win. Handicap 1 (-1.5) is the home side after that run line is applied, and Over / under O 8.5 is the match passing that many runs. Green means the call won, red means it lost, amber means it has not settled yet. Losing calls stay on the page, which is what the accuracy record is built from. The last column shows the start time until a fixture begins, then the live score, then the final score.
How Baseball Handicap Settles
What counts, and what does not
- The line. The run line is almost always 1.5 runs. The favourite at -1.5 must win by two or more; the underdog at +1.5 wins the bet by winning or losing by one. Because so many games are decided by one run, the favourite on the run line is usually priced above evens.
- Overtime. Extra innings count and a game cannot end level in MLB. The moneyline, the run line and the total all settle on the final score including extra innings. Some leagues outside MLB allow ties after a set number of innings; where a tie is possible the row says so.
- Pushes refund. Where a whole number line lands exactly, the stake is returned.
Settlement rules vary slightly between bookmakers. Where practice differs we say "most bookmakers"; check the rules of the one you use before placing anything.
About Our Baseball Handicap Predictions
What the market is, how we rate it, where it tends to land and how to use the page
Baseball run line predictions rate the margin rather than the winner. Favourites in baseball win less often than in any other sport we cover, because a single game turns on which pitcher is on the mound and the best sides lose a third of their games. That makes the straight win market, called the moneyline, the most honestly priced of the three, and it is why underdogs appear on this page. We rate the run line on every game we cover and list the ones where our expected margin differs from the line by enough to matter, from the card on the baseball predictions hub.
How the Line Works
The run line is almost always 1.5 runs. The favourite at -1.5 must win by two or more; the underdog at +1.5 wins the bet by winning or losing by one. Because so many games are decided by one run, the favourite on the run line is usually priced above evens.
How We Rate It
The run line favourite needs a two run margin, and a large share of games are decided by one. The rating weighs the favourite's record of winning by two or more, which is a different thing from its record of winning, and the strength of its bullpen, which decides close games late. The method is on how we make predictions.
What Moves the Run line
The run line at 1.5 is a bet on a two run margin, and one run games are so common that the favourite is usually priced above evens on it. The rating weighs each side's record of winning by two or more and the strength of its bullpen, which decides close games late. The competitions that produce most of the rows here are MLB, NPB, KBO, LIDOM.
The Other Two Markets
The straight win page rates the winner alone, and is the better market when the run line is small or the favourite is not clear. The over / under page rates the combined runs and is the natural pairing when you have a view on how the game is played rather than who wins it.
How to Use This Page
The chips above the table switch market. The country and competition selects narrow the table to one competition without leaving the page. The day pills move to tomorrow or the week ahead, and the date picker goes to any day. Every row links to the full fixture page, where the analysis explains the number. When a pick settles it stays on the site with its result, and the market's strike rate on the accuracy page is calculated from that archive, losses included. The baseball predictions hub carries the same fixtures across every market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What people ask about baseball handicap predictions.